45% would be disturbing new high for the French far-right but …
(and this is not criticism of Mij, who is v level-headed on it)
1. Not all those votes are far right votes. Some are anti-system votes, some are anti-Macron votes. twitter.com/Mij_Europe/sta…
2. Vote rot = inevitably more anti-Macron votes when he is defending his record after five years.
3. Zemmour did Le Pen a favour by staking out even farther right positions
4. Le Pen is a figure that people are more familiar with now and cost of living crisis is good for her
5. Electoral system is handling Dutchification v badly. 2-round means representative of the universal 25% anti-system voting bloc will always get to run off against a fragmented mainstream.
6. Le Pen vote will be the 2022 high point for RN. Assemblée elections will not go well.
None of this is to say we shouldn’t be worried, but this is not “one more heave” and then the far right win. The non-extreme parties have five years to reconfigure themselves into a winning format for the post-Macron era. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t but they can.
Originally posted as a thread of 4 tweets on Twitter on 23 April 2022. View the original thread.