Concrete Achievements

Tag: Far Right

  • Reading: Why is AfD strong in eastern Germany?

    This 2020 article in PQ by Manes Weisskircher reviews the research on why the far right is strong in eastern Germany.

    The answer is multi-faceted. There is the reality of economic decline, particularly for those of working age since the welfare state gives people past retirement age an income on which they can live easily -worth noting that in the Saxony-Anhalt results yesterday, the older voter cohorts, past retirement age, were more likely to vote CDU than AfD, despite the CDU’s terrible showing in the region.

    There is also a sense of being looked down upon, particularly by AfD voters – the idea that the western Germans don’t think that they are worth helping.

    Immigration narratives (rather than immigration realities) also play their part, as does the flight of younger people away from areas where they see no prospect of work

    What does it mean for democracy?

    First, that economic well-being matters but so does the sense of being an equal citizen, not a burden on the state. Restarting economic growth in eastern German towns may not be something that can be done with a wave of the hand, but understanding how they need support as the economy continues to transition is part of it. Also, the solidarity between East and West is under pressure in Germany – in a time of fiscal problems for the country as a whole, what can be done to reinforce that as a collective right not a burden on the wessis?

    Second, social and democratic cohesion (or re-integration, in the term the article uses) is essential. That has to start at local level is needed to give voice to local communities and to stand against disinformation-driven radicalisation. Jochen Wegner in Die Zeit calls for this sort of democratic mobilisation, but it can’t come just from Berlin and the media sphere, it has to be built locally.

    Third, the defences at national level against the far-right also need to be stronger. This isn’t just about maintaining the firewall against engaging with the AfD, but also finding means to counter the huge PR boost they acknowledge they are getting from far-right foreign forces, whether Muskite or Putinite.

  • 45% would be disturbing new high for the French far-right but …

    45% would be disturbing new high for the French far-right but …
    (and this is not criticism of Mij, who is v level-headed on it)
    1. Not all those votes are far right votes. Some are anti-system votes, some are anti-Macron votes. twitter.com/Mij_Europe/sta…

    2. Vote rot = inevitably more anti-Macron votes when he is defending his record after five years.
    3. Zemmour did Le Pen a favour by staking out even farther right positions
    4. Le Pen is a figure that people are more familiar with now and cost of living crisis is good for her

    5. Electoral system is handling Dutchification v badly. 2-round means representative of the universal 25% anti-system voting bloc will always get to run off against a fragmented mainstream.
    6. Le Pen vote will be the 2022 high point for RN. Assemblée elections will not go well.

    None of this is to say we shouldn’t be worried, but this is not “one more heave” and then the far right win. The non-extreme parties have five years to reconfigure themselves into a winning format for the post-Macron era. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t but they can.

  • It has been depressingly educational to see how the media have taken one line in Macron’s…

    It has been depressingly educational to see how the media have taken one line in Macron’s speech that triggers their refugee crisis memories, taken it out of context from all the things Macron said about taking refugees and a better European strategy, framed it

    As the main point of the speech, and now Twitter is screaming that French voters have a choice between a male and female Le Pen. It’s notable that the only French media that made it the main theme was far-right rag Valeurs Actuelles.

    I would have liked to hear a different speech but this was not the speech Twitter thinks it was. If we allow this situation to be reframed for us into the 2015 refugee crisis it will become the 2015 refugee crisis and the far right will be delighted.

    Macron promised a new initiative with Germany very shortly. It needs to be of the right level of ambition and to focus on making the process more welcoming and more collective in Europe while protecting people from traffickers.

    The full speech is here: elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…

  • Labour chasing anti immigrant voters?

    Labour chasing anti immigrant voters? twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    Video on Twitter

    Is Brexit not enough? Destroying economic and social ties with our continent not enough. No, of course Brexit is not enough *because nothing will ever be enough*.

    If you chase after populists, you will become a populist, and people will vote for the real thing not the copy. (Juncker’s comment from a few years back, still true except in the case of the Tories where they cannibalised the far right. But Labour can’t do that.

  • I thought it was interesting that ⁦@egbertlachaert⁩ specifically set 2030 as the planning…

    I thought it was interesting that ⁦@egbertlachaert⁩ specifically set 2030 as the planning horizon for the next government. Triple significance: 1. Two election cycles so they clearly want to build a relationship that lasts (and with 80 seats if standaard.be/cnt/dmf2020090…

    they can pull back the nationalists and far right/left in 2024 they could get a very comfortable majority; 2. significant climate change action will need to have happened by then, particularly around cars; 3. 2030 is Belgium’s 200th anniversary, by using that date

    specifically they distinguish from the nationalist parties who will almost certainly not want it acknowledged or celebrated – while they can put forward a vision of a modernised country (with a constitutional reform at the point of the 2024 election bedded in).

    Not that this means it will all happen, but after the last two years of drift it’s a welcome level of ambition. Will be looking to see what @PaulMagnette and Conner Rousseau can achieve on the social democratic side of the ledger with the Greens.

  • Astonishing figures on #bepol social media spend in @LeVif: leader of far right Vlaams…

    Astonishing figures on #bepol social media spend in @LeVif: leader of far right Vlaams Belang spent €469k on personal page ads Mar-Jun. All other party leaders together: €410k. Flemish nationalists & far right spent €1,7m. All other parties together: €0,9m

    This is so one sided it’s embarrassing. No wonder the Flemish polls are showing huge leads for the far right.

    Et que font les partis francophones? Les dépenses totales des francophones ne s’élèvent qu’à €117k dans €2,6m. PTB exclu, le parti le plus dépensier (@PSofficiel) débourse 23 fois moins que le Belang.

    Il peut s’agir d’une sorte d’échec multi-dimensionelle qu’ils jouent au Boulevard de l’Empereur. On espère…

  • Can not comprehend how anyone would think national collective punishment for the sins of…

    Can not comprehend how anyone would think national collective punishment for the sins of their government is even remotely acceptable let alone wise. twitter.com/John_Cotter/st…

    Poles are Europeans. To deprive us of our rights *for ever* because the government is an authoritarian shit show just now is just morally wrong.

    It’s *also* geopolitically stupid, demonstrates a colonising mindset that the far right in CEE would use as an argument against the EU for ever, and would lead to the collapse of the EU as an institution. But that’s a side issue.

    To be clear I know this is not what @John_Cotter himself is suggesting.

  • Links from the week of 20 July 2015

    Articles, reports and other links I shared on Twitter this week.