If Hungary result stays as it is, chances of meaningful reform of EU are strongly down. Several more years of Orban and PiS blocking action against each other will use up the Scholz-Macron window of opportunity. After it, Macron can’t run again.
Might even lead to revival of the small-core Rutte model, either within or outside the current Treaty framework, particularly if HU continues down path of being the Russian asset in Council.
All in all, it’s extremely depressing. I would say “ah well, that’s democracy”, but given what Fidesz have done to electoral system and media, it’s not that.
Originally posted as a thread of 3 tweets on Twitter on 3 April 2022. View the original thread.